(to Paige Moore via LinkedIn, reply to her appeal for investment in crypto)
Paige... I hesitated and thought somewhat deeply before penning this reply.
Of course I would invest with you/through you - in crypto, if I could... even though the environmental impact of crypto is appalling, our relationship here overwhelms that legitimate hesitation.
However, you as an investor - and a young one, need to take a few minutes to read this.
"Never complain, never explain"
Paige, you're my friend - and in "the money business". Take a couple of minutes and read this. I'm publishing to the world, but speaking to you. You are the reason I bothered to write this down.
I'm reasonably well versed in the five pillars of world economics.
Commerce.
Money.
Wealth.
History.
War.
This brief essay is my attempt to explain a lot of the chaos and mis-communication the economic world is experiencing at this moment.
"Crisis breeds Opportunity" a picture of world economics, 2022.
(presented in summary through a linkedin reply, January, 2022).
Paige,
I fear our very fascinating and uplifting friendship was built on a foundation of sand.
context: Paige needs to "close a deal" (her words) to sustain her small private cake making/crypto currency business. Fair enough - I'd have forwarded a check instantly 10 years ago. She's that good.
(About The recipient of this reply) - Her name is Paige Moore - she's brilliant, decent, aware, generous of spirit. I could not recommend a person more for any type of commercial activity).
Paige lives in Glasgow. I'm in Farm Country (Midwest, USA) - Harlan, Indiana.
This essay begins with a brief summary of what being a middle class American means in 2022, In the context of healthcare and death, and then immediately morphs into a firm explanation of "why" the world economy is writhing like a snake right now... and inflation issues are NOT really anything to worry about. This is a topic that is on everyone's mind right now.
Inflation? Sure - fix that. It would be like putting a bandaid however, on a broken limb.
Looming economic chaos/inflation - here in the USA and around the world.
It is not "COVID" - it is not Red vs Blue, liberal vs conservative or Communist vs Capitalist. It is WAY deeper than that.
Here is my reply to her plea, in its entirety.
TLDR: Just cue up "it's the end of the world, and I know it" on Youtube. An excellent summary :)
**** (beginning of essay/response)
Paige - I got a little shy after our last group of communications. I can't lie to you, I'm a mature American. My wife died 6 years ago of a cancer.
I can't be your golden eagle - I can't "invest" with you, or I would have 10,000 words ago.
Although I'm a child of privilege - as is typical here, just the deductibles of my dead wife's cancer treatments simply wiped us out. In fact, our 5 bedroom, 4 bathroom home on a double lot with a tennis court goes up for bankruptcy auction (Sheriff's sale) after a 2+ year delay due to covid restrictions on such activities.
While I was an active investor - and indeed I opened my first commodities account when I was 13, (a silver bubble).... It is quite illegal for me to save more than one month's pension - and it will likely remain that way for life.
(It is quite expensive in the USA even to file for bankruptcy)
Not per se unaffordable as although my pension is rather modest at $2,200 USD per month, it still seems a waste of money to invest $2000 or $3000 to file when the only result would be two years of $350 compensatory payments to the medical expense vultures, followed by about 7 years of waiting to reestablish a credit rating.
It is what it is - and every family in America who have less than "1 unit" ($10,000,000) of cash net worth contains multiple members wiped out by medical debt.
My primary investments - like my parents before me, have been human. It isn't even definable as "philanthropy" - but rather just a multi-generational practice of letting money flow through us into the greater community for the benefit of people.
That's one reason my bankrupt status has no real effect on me... My relationship with money was forged by family tradition, and rich or poor - we live the same way, always have, always will.
Main body of essay - economics and a seminal moment in the history of man:
The winds of change blow hard when they blow across fiat currencies - perhaps the weirdest time in my family's background was the "tulip craze" in Holland in the 1600s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania (clickable link)
I'm confident that your industry is headed full-speed into just such a moment, particularly since the enemies of crypto control vast, vast sums of liquid wealth.
Most of the dynasties that own 98% of everything of value on this planet date back to Roman or pre-Roman times.
They are not happy that their monopoly on currency and trade is being attacked - and they have proven repeatedly that they can artificially create monetary crisis - and their core family business' has always been munitions and war financing.
Nothing like a complete economic collapse to generate anger - easily directed toward tribal enemies (such as the USA vs China currently).
Our "paper" currency (and most of Europe's) is spiraling the drain now - not due to Covid expenditures, but due to the tiny hiccup (comparatively) of the sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2008 - 2012.
Economies are "heavy" things - the momentum, incredible. The reason advanced economies are simply shutting down, printing money and walking away now?
Simple - the foundations were destroyed in the former crisis - so who cares how many Euro, dollars etc we print today?
Paper+Ink=Trash
Although mostly digitized, "crypto" currencies that are NOT publicly traded, the crypto that underlies Western banking systems, has been worthless for 10 years.... still maintain significant purchase power - it is a false impression.
Dollars, Euros etc are simply without value due to vast oversupply. End of discussion.
"Banking bail-out" is a synonym for "pending economic collapse,"
We just haven't gone over the cliff quite yet. The first stirrings are always, inflation.
AI is helping soften the blow, or it (collapse) would have happened already.
The traditionally traded currencies at least enjoy the support of the 1%... since they own the vast majority of it (mainly in debt interests to national governments via bond holdings).
These dynasties could care less - their diversification strategies date back 2000 years.
The infant wealth of the OPEC barons? At risk... and they know it, and are working HARD to diversify.... have been for three generations.
Not easy to join the Ruling Class - not permanently, and if you don't think they are targeting the Gates, Walmart, Amazon and Musk fortunes right now, you don't know a bit about economic history.
It is not a game to them, (as it is to Bill Gates or Elon).... These dynasties, they dabble... they play... but "the game" is not their venue of activity.
You see Paige, - they own the board, the dice, the tokens and the (world) room in which the game is played.
The most ancient of these dynasties date to Sumerian times - before the Pyramids.
You are destined for an "interesting life".
Paige, if my admittedly limited knowledge can be of assistance - let me know.
JEH
